A recently released report from the firm, Tipping Point, argues that current Grade A office market trends in cities around the country will lead to a dearth of quality space in the most sought-after locations.
According to GVA’s report, supply will dry up sooner rather than later unless speculative office development picks up notably in the months ahead.
The report maintains that cities like Manchester and Edinburgh are approaching a ‘tipping point’ where demand for Grade A office space begins to outstrip supply. Bristol, Leeds, and Birmingham are believed to be in a similar position, with their respective tipping points expected to be reached in 2015 unless supply levels increase considerably.
GVA’s report suggests that in the next few years, many businesses across the country will reach the end of their existing tenancy agreements and begin seeking new offices. The firm insists that a lack of top-quality office space in city-centre locations could damage the UK’s appeal as a destination for corporate occupiers.
“It’s no secret that the UK’s Grade A office pipeline is shrinking quickly. However, the scale and repercussions of this event haven’t appeared to have fully caught on. Our research points to an alarming set of potential circumstances,” said Carl Potter, senior director and head of National Offices at GVA.
A report from CBRE on the performance of the UK’s regional office space markets cited Edinburgh as having performed best overall during 2012. The Scottish capital saw office take-up rates well above average in the first half of the year.
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Editor’s Note: At the end of 2022, the total office space supply in the key regional UK office markets—Aberdeen, Birmingham, Bristol, Cambridge, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Manchester, and Oxford—stood at 14.4 million square feet—this was broadly similar to the year before.
However, total supply of Grade A office space in these markets fell to 4.4 million square feet, down 11 per cent from the previous year.
This is due to fewer development projects starting during the pandemic and increased building costs from supply chain issues afterwards, meaning less Grade A space came to market.
It is also due to the flight to quality by office tenants, who are seeking high-quality office space to continue to entice employees back to the office and help recruit new employees.
Additionally, businesses are seeking energy-efficient space due to rising utility costs from the Russo-Ukrainian war, and that also has good ESG credentials.
This sort of office space is found in the Grade-A stock.
In May 2026, Avison Young reported that annual development completions through 2028 would be 48 per cent below the 10-year average in the Big 9 regional UK cities: Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle.
The firm said shortages of high-quality regional office space were intensifying because high financing and construction costs limited speculative development.
While overall vacancy across the Big Nine sat at 9.8 per cent, Grade A vacancy remained tightly restricted at just 2.2 per cent.
Constrained supply meant refurbishments made up 53 per cent of the active office development pipeline at the time of the report.